The question on military alliance divides opinions even more clearly than before. The ABDI Survey, carried out 29.9.-19.10.2004

The majority of Finns still support military non-alignment but the number of those supporting alignment has gone up. Sixty-one per cent of citizens think that Finland should remain military non-aligned (64% in 2003) whereas 34 per cent are of the opinion that Finland should ally itself militarily (24% in 2003).

The share of respondents who cannot say an opinion on this has clearly de-creased (5% in 2004, 11% in 2003). This question has been posed in MTS polls since 1996. Support for military alignment has varied between 16-34 per cent and between 60-79 per cent for military non-alignment, respectively.

Military non-alignment is supported by 79 per cent of Left Alliance supporters (68% in 2003), 66 (67%) of Centre Party supporters, 61 (74%) of Greens supporters, 59 (66%) of Social Democratic Party (SDP) supporters and 45 per cent (43%) of National Coalition Party supporters. Military alignment is supported by 52 per cent (51% in 2003) of National Coalition Party supporters, 34 (24% and 15 %, respectively) of both SDP supporters and Greens supporters, 30 (24%) of Centre Party and 18 per cent (23%) of Left Alliance supporters.

Support for military alignment has increased the most in the youngest age group because of those under 25 years of age, 42 per cent (24% in 2003) now support military alignment. The second highest increase in support is in the oldest age group (37% in 2004, 25% in 2003).

NATO is still the favoured alignment option; the EU's role is on the increase

Should Finland decide to ally itself militarily, a little more than one half of its citizens, 52 per cent, regard NATO as the best alternative (58% in 2003). Correspondingly, 40 per cent opine that the best alternative would be to develop the European Union, adding to its present activities, into a military alliance, in which Finland would participate (30% in 2003)

Support for NATO as the best alignment option has diminished among the supporters of all other political parties except those supporting the National Coalition, whereas compared to the previous year, developing the EU also into a military alliance is backed more by supporters of all parties - most of all the Left Alliance - as the best alignment option.

Of National Coalition supporters 61 per cent (59% in 2003) consider NATO the best alternative, 55 (59%) of Centre Party, 48 (59%) of SDP, 33 (51%) of Greens and 27 per cent (57%) of Left Allian-ce supporters.

Developing the EU into a military alliance, in which Finland would participate, is regarded as the best option by 63 per cent (35% in 2003) of Left Alliance supporters, 50 (45%) of Greens, 45 (31%) of SDP, 39 (27%) of Centre Party and 38 per cent (34%) of National Coalition supporters.

Finland's commitment to NATO

The majority of citizens, 64 per cent, are of the opinion that as a result of cooperation with NATO on many levels, Finland is committing itself to NATO membership (59% in 2003). Of men, 66 per cent share this opinion (66% in 2003) and 62 per cent (52%) of women, respectively.

Of National Coalition supporters, 75 per cent (64% in 2003) think so, 71 (65%) of Greens, 65 (63%) of Centre Party, 57 (61) of SDP and 51 per cent (73%) of Left Alliance supporters.

Support for Finland-NATO cooperation

For the first time citizens were asked to provide an opinion on the various forms of Finland NATO cooperation.

Seventy per cent of citizens have a positive attitude toward the Finland-NATO Partnership for Peace cooperation, whereas one quarter, 26 per cent, has a negative attitude toward it. Of those with a positive attitude, 73 per cent are men and 67 per cent are women. A positive attitude is shared by 87 per cent of National Coalition supporters, 75 of Greens, 72 of Centre Party, 71 of SDP and 44 per cent of Left Alliance supporters.

Finnish participation in NATO led crisis management operations is viewed positively by 59 per cent of citizens and negatively by ca. one third, 37 per cent. A positive attitude is shared by 67 per cent of National Coalition supporters, 63 of Centre Party, 62 of SDP, 57 of Greens and 36 per cent of Left Alliance supporters.

A positive attitude toward developing the Defence Forces’ weaponry and command systems to be interoperable with NATO is shared by nearly two thirds of citizens, 63 per cent, and viewed nega-tively by a third, 33 per cent. Of those with a positive attitude, 70 per cent are men and 57 per cent are women. A positive attitude is shared by 82 per cent of National Coalition supporters, 74 of Centre Party, 61 of SDP, 55 of Greens and 33 per cent of Left Alliance supporters.

The most critical age groups are those of 50-plus years, even though a majority of them share a po-sitive attitude toward cooperation. Differing from supporters of the other parties, the supporters of the Left Alliance have a negative attitude toward cooperation with NATO.

Crisis management and peacekeeping tasks are suitable for the European Union

In the 2003 survey three questions were posed regarding the European Union's mutual defence, its establishment and Finland's participation in it. The questions were repeated in this year's survey.

When citizens were asked to provide their view on the EU's mutual defence, a majority, 59 per cent, consider that the EU should limit itself to present style crisis management and peacekeeping activities (57% in 2003). This view is shared by 75 per cent (64% in 2003) of Greens supporters, 58 of Left Alliance and SDP (66% and 63%, respectively), 56 (56%) of Centre Party and 54 per cent (49%) of National Coalition supporters.

Establishing a mutual defence is supported by 28 per cent (27% in 2003) and 11 per cent favour a total abstention from military activities (10% in 2003).

The European Union's mutual defence to be organized by Member States

In the case that the EU decides to establish a mutual defence, 62 per cent of citizens think that it should be carried out using the Member States' own resources (53% in 2003). This opinion is shared by 90 per cent of Left Alliance supporters (72% in 2003), 68 (69%) of Greens, 61 (51%) of Centre Party, 60 (57%) of SDP and 50 per cent (45%) of National Coalition supporters.

Establishing a mutual defence in cooperation with NATO is supported by 33 per cent of citizens (35% in 2003). This opinion is shared by 47 per cent of National Coalition supporters (49% in 2003), 37 (39%) of Centre Party, 34 (34%) of SDP, 32 (25%) of Greens and eight per cent (14%) of Left Alliance supporters.

Finland to participate in the establishment of the European Union's mutual defence

In the case that the EU decides to establish a mutual defence, 49 per cent of citizens are of the opinion that Finland should participate in it when it is established exclusively by the Member States (45% in 2003). Thirteen per cent of citizens consider that Finland should participate in such EU mutual defence, which is established in cooperation with NATO (14% in 2003), whereas 19 per cent of citizens are of the opinion that Finland should participate in establishing the EU's mutual defence irrespective of whether it is established by the Member States alone or in cooperation with NATO (18% in 2003). Fourteen per cent of citizens consider that Finland should not participate at all in the establishment of the EU’s mutual defence (15% in 2003).

Finns have a strong defence will

Four fifths (80%) of Finns thought that if Finland were attacked, Finns should take up arms to defend themselves in all circumstances, even if the outcome seemed uncertain (73% in 2003). Of men, 86 per cent (82%) share this view and of women, 74 per cent (63%). When the gap between the opinions of men and women last year represented 19 percentage points, now it is 12. During the last decade the gap between the opinion of men and women has varied between 9-19 percentage points. Party affiliation, too, causes variation. The most critical are the supporters of the Greens (69% yes, 29% no) and the Left Alliance (76% yes, 23% no). The most positive are the supporters of the National Coalition (87% yes, 13 % no) and the Centre Party (85% yes, 12 % no). The SDP supporters' view reflects the average of the population (80% yes, 19% no). The other background variables cause no significant differences.

Leaving the country in a war situation

Almost one fifth of Finns (18%) would try to leave the country if Finland were attacked (13% in 1997). Almost four fifths (77%) respond negatively (80% in 1997). There is a clear distinction between men and women because 24 per cent of women would try to leave the country (19% in 1997) compared to 12 per cent of men (8%). Of the supporters of the Greens, 26 per cent would try to leave the country (19% in 1997), 18 (13%) of National Coalition, 17 (8%) of Centre Party, 14 (12%) of SDP and 12 per cent of Left Alliance supporters (16% in 1997). The question was previously asked in 1995-1997.

Robust support for general conscription

The majority of Finns, 77 per cent, would retain the present general conscription based military in Finland, in which the largest possible share from each annual intake receives training with weapons (79% in 2003). Of men, 76 per cent (78%) are of this opinion and of women, 79 per cent (81%). Fifteen per cent of citizens view that the number of those receiving armed training could selectively be reduced (11% in 2003). Seven per cent of citizens support abolishing the general conscription based military and transferring to fully professional armed forces (8% in 2003). The question has been posed since 2001 and no fundamental changes have occurred between the alternatives.

Support for the present model increases with age in such a way that of the 50-plus year old more than four fifths support it (85% in 2003) whereas of those below the age of 25, 71 per cent (69%) do and in the 25-34 age bracket 70% (76%) support it.

A transfer to a selective system is supported by 18 percent of those below 25 years old (15% in 2003) and 19 per cent (15%) by the 25-34 yrs group, whereas 13-14 percent in the 50-plus groups support it (6%). Support for transferring to a fully professional military decreases with age in such a way that of the 50-plus groups 4-6 per cent support it (7% in 2003) but of the ones below 25 years old 11 per cent (13% in 2003).

The present model is backed by 82 per cent (83% in 2003) of SDP supporters, 78 (90% and 83%, respectively) of Centre Party and National Coalition, 66 (76%) of Left Alliance and 60 per cent (66%) of Greens supporters. A transfer to a selective system is backed by 23 per cent of Greens supporters (21%), 22 (15%) of Left Alliance, 16 (7%) of National Coalition, 15 (11% and 6%, respectively) of SDP and Centre Party supporters. Support for a fully professional military varies between 15 (Greens) and three (SDP) per cent.

Finland's ability to defend itself is trusted

More than one half of citizens (58%) regard that Finland has good chances to defend itself, should Finland end up fighting a conventional war (58% in 2002). Of men, 63 per cent share this view (65%) and of women, 53 per cent (52%). Forty per cent of citizens (38% in 2002) consider that Finland's chances to defend itself are fairly poor or poor; 36 % of men (33%) and 43 % of women (40%).

Of Left Alliance supporters 55 per cent regard Finland's chances to defend itself as poor (57% in 2002) and 42 per cent as good (28%). Of Centre Party supporters 64 per cent (59%) regard the chances as good and 35 per cent (41%) as poor, of the SDP 58 (62%) as good and 40 (38%) as poor, of National Coalition 57 (72%) as good and 41 (28%) as poor and of Greens supporters 57 per cent (40%) as good and 42 per cent (52%) as poor.

The Defence Forces have military tasks both in Finland and abroad

As new question in the poll, citizens were queried on their view on the Defence Forces' military tasks. The question included three parts: Defence of Finland's territorial integrity, participation in defending the European Union and participation in countering crises and threats in various parts of the world.

Almost all citizens (98%) are of the opinion that the Defence Forces' task is to defend Finland's territorial integrity. The idea of defending the European Union, too, as one of the Defence Forces' military tasks is shared by 71 per cent of Finns. Of women 72 per cent share this view and 69 per cent of men. Seventy-seven per cent of SDP supporters think so, 74 of Greens, 72 of National Coalition, 68 of Centre Party and 62 per cent of Left Alliance supporters. Twenty-nine per cent of citizens are of the opinion that defending the EU does not belong to the military tasks of the Finnish Defence Forces.

A little over one half (55%) of citizens consider that participation in countering crises and threats around the globe is a military task of the Defence Forces. Differences between age groups are clear: Of those below 25 years old 63 per cent think so, whereas 51 per cent of the over 64 year olds share this view. Fewer than one half of Finns (44%) regard that participation in countering crises and threats does not belong to the military tasks of the Defence Forces.

Participation in countering crises and threats also divides the supporters of political parties. Of Greens supporters 63 per cent regard this as belonging to the Finnish Defence Forces' military tasks, 56 of SDP, 54 of Centre Party, 52 of Left Alliance and slightly less than one half, 49 per cent, of National Coalition supporters.

The level of defence appropriations is satisfactory, desire to raise the level has increased

The present level of defence appropriations satisfies 53 per cent of citizens (57% in 2003). Raising the level is supported by 38 per cent (29%) and lowering it by seven per cent of citizens (11%). Of men, 43 support raising it (34%) and of women, 34 per cent ( 24%). Of National Coalition support-ers 48 per cent (40%) support raising the level, 43 (36%) of Centre Party, 39 (29%) of SDP, 32 (20%) of Left Alliance and 23 per cent (15%) of Greens supporters. Lowering the appropriations is backed by 26 per cent (22% in 2003) of Greens supporters, 19 (19%) of Left Alliance supporters, six per cent (9%) of the National Coalition, four per cent (10%) of SDP and two per cent (4%) of Centre Party supporters.

The mine question divides opinions

The question whether Finland should accede to the Ottawa Convention, banning anti-personnel landmines, or to retain the mines as part of its weaponry, splits the citizens' opinions evenly: 49 per cent want to retain them and 46 per cent want to abolish them. Of women, 57 per cent support abolishing the mines and of men, 35 per cent.

Fifty-nine per cent of National Coalition supporters are of the opinion that the landmines should be retained, 52 per cent of Centre Party, 50 per cent of SDP, 4 per cent of Left Alliance and 35 per cent of Greens supporters. Sixty-nine per cent of Greens supporters are in favour of abolishing the mines, 54 of Left Alliance, 48 of SDP, 45 of Centre Party and 35 per cent of National Coalition sup-porters.

The conduct of Finland's foreign policy is trusted

Eighty four per cent of citizens consider Finland’s foreign policy to be well conducted (86% in 2003). Of women 85 per cent are of that opinion (83%) and of men, 82 per cent (89%). Fourteen per cent of Finns regard the foreign policy as poorly conducted (11%); 15 per cent of men (10%) and 12 per cent of women (11%). Of Greens supporters 94 per cent (91%) regard the foreign policy as well conducted, 91 (92%) of SDP, 89 (84%) of Left Alliance, 86 (88%) of Centre Party, 83 (87%) of the National Coalition and 74 per cent (75%) of supporters of other political parties.

This question has been asked in the surveys since 1964 (previously in Henkisen Maanpuolustuksen Suunnittelukunta, HMS surveys and since 1978, in MTS surveys). The view, according to which foreign policy has been well conducted, has been supported by 62-95 per cent of Finns, whereas 2-33 per cent of Finns have represented the view that foreign policy has been poorly conducted.

Finland has managed its external relations well

According to its citizens, Finland has managed its relations with other countries well. Ninety-one per cent (93% in 2003) consider that relations with Sweden have been well managed, 89 (88%) with other Nordic countries, 88 (88%) with Estonia, 71 (73%) with other Baltic countries, 78 (81%) with Russia, 84 (85%) with Germany, 77 (74%) with France and 73 (75%) with the United States. Management of relations with developing countries receives the most critical estimate, because 61 per cent (58% in 2003) consider them to be well managed.

Trust in a safer future has diminished

The number of people regarding the future as safer has significantly diminished within a year. Now 17 per cent of Finns consider the world safer for Finland and for Finns during the next five years, whereas 30 per cent of Finns felt this way in the autumn of 2003. Nevertheless, 40 per cent of Finns are of the opinion that no change will occur compared to the present (26% in 2003).

Like a year ago, 42 per cent of Finns estimate that Finland and Finns will live in a less safe world during the next five years compared to the present. Of women, one half are of the opinion, 49 per cent (51% in 2003) and of men, one third, 34 per cent (33%).

Sense of security is connected to the EU

Of all factors presented in the survey the ones most likely to increase security, in the opinion of citizens, are the EU's counter-terrorism activity (55%), Finland's participation in establishing the EU's mutual defence (54%), Finland's membership in the European Union (52%), the intensified Russia-NATO relations (42%) and Finland's increasing international economic activity (37%).

Forty per cent of Finns consider Finland's military non-alignment as increasing security and 15 per cent consider it as decreasing security, whereas 37 per cent estimate Finland's possible accession to NATO as increasing security and 34 per cent as decreasing security. Instead, the clear majority of Finns feel that neither Sweden's military non-alignment (72%) nor Sweden's possible NATO membership, according to roughly one half (57%) of the respondents, have any effect on the security of Finland and Finns.

Thirty-six per cent of citizens hold the participation of a Finnish unit in the EU's rapid response force as increasing Finns' security and 15 per cent consider it as decreasing security. Instead, 32 per cent of citizens estimate Finns' participation in crisis management missions in war zones as decreasing security and 20 per cent estimate it as increasing security.

The declarations of war against terrorism by Russia (50%) and the United States (48%), among other things, are considered as security decreasing factors as well as Turkey's possible membership in the EU (40%) and the EU's expansion into the Baltic countries and to Eastern Central Europe (35%).

The political situation in the world is worrying

For the first time it was asked how concerned Finns are about the present political situation in the world. Two thirds (68%) of citizens are either very concerned or somewhat concerned. Seventy-one per cent of women think so and of men, 66 per cent. Thirty-one per cent of citizens are only a little or not at all concerned about the present political world situation.

Clear differences can be seen between age groups. In the two youngest groups (15-34 years) 58-61 per cent are very or somewhat concerned, 38-42 per cent a little or not at all concerned. In the three oldest age groups (35-74 years), the numbers are 68-75 per cent and 25-30 per cent, correspondingly.

International terrorism, nuclear weapons and the state of the environment worry Finns

In the course of the survey a list of phenomena and factors were presented to respondents and they were asked to estimate how much they will cause concern for them in the future. The biggest causes for concern are international terrorism (86%), nuclear weapons (80%), the global state of the environment (79%), the use of global natural resources (78%), international organized crime (77%), proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (76%), use of nuclear power for energy production in Russia (76%), the employment situation in Finland (71%) and the situation in Iraq (68%).

Only some or no cause for concern were considered to be the use of nuclear power for energy production in Finland (59%) and the increasing number of immigrants in Finland (56%). The attitude toward globalization is ambivalent. Fifty per cent of Finns consider it to cause much or some concern, whereas 48 per cent little or not at all.

The military situation in Finland's near environs seems stable

In the survey citizens were asked to provide their estimate on the military situation in Finland's near environs for the next decade. Sixty-seven per cent of citizens regard the future situation as being more or less the same as at present; 70 per cent of men and 65 of women. A quarter of citizens (24%) consider the situation more threatening. Of women 29 per cent think so and of men, 18 per cent. Middle-aged people and seniors regard the situation as more threatening (28% and 24%) compared to the two youngest age groups (19%). Eight per cent of the whole population regard the situation as less threatening, 10 per cent of men and five per cent of women.

Military conflicts in Europe's near environs are considered probable

Finns were asked to provide their opinion on the probability of various kinds of conflicts in the near future. Almost one half of citizens (48%) consider a military conflict or war in Europe's near environs probable, which would have repercussions on Europe, whereas an even half of citizens consider it unlikely. Thirty-six per cent of citizens consider an internal conflict or a civil war in a European state probable. A military conflict or a war between two or more European states is considered probable by 20 per cent of citizens and 16 per cent of citizens consider a major war on many continents, also extending to Europe, probable.

Religious factors are often seen as the most important cause of terrorism

For the first time in an MTS survey citizens were asked to provide views on the causes of terrorism. The respondents were asked to pick the two most important causes of terrorism, in their opinion, from a list of nine factors, or to mention other causes of terrorism in a write-in answer.

Religious factors were most commonly (50%) mentioned as one of the two most important causes. The second most often (38%) estimated cause was economic and social inequality and poverty. One third of the respondents (32%) estimate that the battle over natural resources, such as water and oil, are among the two most important reasons. The next causes mentioned are political and ideological disputes (27%), contrasts between cultures (19%), ethnic strife (9%), threat to one's own traditional way of life (7%), lack of future prospects (6%) and the feeling of being humiliated (5%).



This survey was conducted to ascertain Finns' opinions on Finnish foreign policy and on security and defence policy. Questions regarding the arrangement of the European Union's mutual defence as well as Finland-NATO cooperation are also included in the poll. Citizens were also asked to provide their impressions on how they feel security will develop over the next five years and how much they worry about the political situation in the world as well as factors causing concern for the future. In addition, citizens' views on the root causes of terrorism were also surveyed. Altogether 24 questions were asked, of which six were totally new.

The survey was commissioned by the Advisory Board for Defence Information (ABDI) and it was conducted by TNS Gallup. The survey was conducted by interviewing 1039 persons September 9 - October 10, 2004. The error of margin is + / − three (3) percentage points. The poll was conducted as a part of an omnibus survey (capibus) through personal interviews. The target group consisted of our nation's population from 15 to 74 years of age with the exception of the Åland Islands. The sample was formed by quota sampling, in which the target group's quotas were the distribution of age, gender, region, municipality type, income, education and party affiliation.

When analysing the results, it must be taken into account that the results gained from bigger parties are more reliable than those from the small parties, whose samples include numerically fewer of their supporters. The following question was asked in the survey: What party would you vote for, if the parliamentary elections were arranged now? Of the respondents, 71.5 per cent (743) revealed their party affiliation and 28.5 per cent (296) declined to do so.

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