Bulletins and reports
ABDI survey: Questions on Afghanistan
ABDI survey 2009 had three questions of the situation in Afghanistan
The complex conflict of Afghanistan
The survey asked people to assess what the conflict in Afghanistan is about. Half of the respondents answered multiple choice questions and the other half provided open answers in their own words.
The multiple choice questions included eight answers to which the respondents could either fully or somewhat agree or disagree.
The conflict in Afghanistan concerns a crisis management operation to stabilise the situation in Afghanistan. Whereas 68 percent agree with the argument, twenty four percent disagree. Sixty-five percent of women and seventy percent of men think this. Seventy-nine percent of the respondents younger than 25 years of age agree, as do 67 percent of the 25-34 years age group, 65 percent of the 35-49 age group and 64 percent of the respondents older than 50 years of age. Seventy-six percent of Social Democratic Party (SDP) supporters think so and 73 of National Coalition, 72 percent of Greens, 62 percent of Centre Party and 59 percent of Left Alliance supporters have the same opinion.
It is all about preventing Afghanistan from becoming a base for international terrorism. Whereas 67 percent agree, 22 percent disagree with this premise. Sixty-nine percent of men are of this opinion and sixty-four percent of women. Eighty-two percent of National Coalition supporters hold this position and 79 percent of SDP supporters, 64 percent of Centre Party supporters, 63 percent of Left Alliance supporters and 61 percent of Greens supporters concur.
Afghanistan is fighting a civil war. Sixty-five percent of the respondents agreed with this argument, 66 percent of the women and 65 percent of the men. Twenty-four percent of the respondents did not think so. Seventy-six percent of National Coalition supporters agreed with the argument as well as 68 percent of SDP and Greens supporters, 67 percent of Left Alliance supporters and 63 percent of Centre party supporters.
The issue involves peacemaking between parties to an armed conflict. Whereas 63 percent of the respondents agreed with the argument, 26 percent disagreed with it. Sixty-six percent of men and sixty percent of women held this position. Seventy-six percent of National Coalition supporters thought so as well as 69 percent of Left Alliance supporters, 65 percent of SDP supporters and 59 percent of Centre Party and Greens supporters.
It is about advancing democracy and human rights, reconstruction and improving the living conditions of the citizens. Sixty-two percent of the respondents agreed with this premise and twenty-nine percent disagreed with it. Sixty-nine percent of men and fifty-six percent of women are of the same opinion.
The situation involves the elimination of activities directed against the Government of Afghanistan. Fifty-eight percent of women and fifty-six percent of men agreed with this statement. Seventy percent of SDP supporters as well as 69 percent of Centre Party supporters, 63 percent of Greens supporters, 55 percent of National Coalition supporters as well as 35 percent of Left Alliance supporters concur.
It is about securing the economic and strategic interests of certain foreign powers. Whereas fifty-one percent agree with the premise, 29 percent disagree. Sixty-eight percent of men and fifty-four percent of women hold this position. Ninety-one percent of Left Alliance supporters as well as 69 percent of SDP supporters, 62 percent of Centre Party supporters, 59 percent of National Coalition supporters and 55 percent of Greens supporters have the same opinion.
It is about preventing the supply of narcotics. Fifty-one percent of the respondents agreed with this argument and 39 percent disagreed with it. Whereas sixty-two percent of the respondents in the over-50 years of age group held this view, 49 percent in the 35-49 age group, 40 percent in the 15-24 age group and 32 percent in the 25-34 age group had the same opinion. Sixty-five percent of Left Alliance supporters as well as 62 percent of Centre Party supporters, 61 percent of National Coalition and SDP supporters as well as 38 percent of Greens supporters also held the same opinion.
Altogether 455 open answers were provided. The most often mentioned topics were religion and religious issues (113) followed by terrorism (53), power struggle and internal strife (51), oil and natural resources (49), the Taleban (41), the United States (33), narcotics (30), great power politics (27), Russia (16), tribal tensions (16), money and the economy (13), history (10), status of women (10), poor living conditions (10), civil war (9), cultural clashes (7) outside interference in a country’s internal affairs (7) as well as peace support (7). Figure 1
The international community has failed in Afghanistan
Another new question dealt with how well the international community has achieved its objectives in Afghanistan. The question included six goals, each of which was separately assessed.
As regards all of the polled objectives, the citizens thought that they have been poorly achieved as follows: improving the status of women (78%), building a democratic administration (77%), improving the living conditions (76%), combating terrorism (73%), stabilising the situation in the country (72%) and curtailing narcotics production (72%). Figure 2
Finns want Finland to stay in Afghanistan
Should Finland totally disengage itself from Afghanistan? It should not, say 67 percent. Sixty-four percent of National Coalition supporters have this opinion as well as 74 percent of Greens supporters, 72 percent of SDP supporters, 68 percent of Centre Party supporters and 64 percent of Left Alliance supporters. Roughly one fourth, 27 percent, of the respondents disagrees. Twenty-nine percent of Centre Party and Left Alliance supporters held this view as well as 23 percent of SDP supporters, 21 percent of National Coalition supporters and 20 percent of Greens supporters.
How should Finland act in Afghanistan?
The question included six distinct types of mission, each of which was separately assessed.
Finland must assist in the establishment of a democratic administration in Afghanistan. More than four fifths, 82 percent, of the respondents agree, three percent disagree.
Finland should support economic and social development as well as education through development cooperation. Eighty-one percent concur and 13 percent disagree.
Finland must participate in police training in Afghanistan. Sixty-six percent agree and 29 percent disagree.
Finland must participate in the stabilisation of Afghanistan by means of military crisis management. Whereas 55 percent agree, roughly one third, 38 percent, of the respondents disagrees. Seventy percent of Greens supporters agree with the argument as well as 66 percent of SDP supporters, 59 percent of Centre Party supporters, 58 percent of National Coalition supporters and 40 percent of Left Alliance supporters.
Finland must not participate in training the Afghan National Army. Whereas 50 percent of the respondents agreed with the premise, 43 percent of them had a favourable opinion of such training activities. Fifty-eight percent of SDP supporters as well as 55 percent of Greens supporters, 53 percent of Left Alliance supporters, 46 percent of National Coalition supporters and 40 percent of Centre Party supporters were unreceptive to the idea of training the ANA.
Fifty-three percent of National Coalition supporters as well as 51 percent of Centre Party supporters, 46 percent of Left Alliance supporters, 38 percent of Greens supporters and 37 percent of SDP supporters had a favourable opinion of participating in the training of the Afghan National Army.
Finland must not participate in eliminating extremist groups by means of military force. Whereas seventy-two percent of the respondents agreed with this premise, one fifth, 20 percent, of the respondents have a favourable view of such action. Eighty-three percent of National Coalition supporters as well as 80 percent of Left Alliance supporters, 69 percent of Centre Party supporters, 67 percent of Greens supporters and 66 percent of SDP supporters agree with the argument. Figure 3
How was the survey conducted?
Commissioned by ABDI, Taloustutkimus conducted the survey through personal interviews as part of an omnibus survey. In all, 981 persons were interviewed. The target group was Finland’s population of 15 to 79 year olds, with the exception of the Åland Islands. The sample was formed by quota sampling, in which the target group’s quotas were the distribution of age, gender, province and municipality. Interviews were conducted at 81 locations, 46 of which were cities and 35 other types of municipalities. The sample is weighted according to the target group with the weighted numbers corresponding to Finland’s population of 15 to 79 year olds in thousands.
The error of margin is ± three point two (3.2) percentage points.
When interpreting background variables related to party affiliation, it must be taken into account that the data representing the supporters of larger political parties are more reliable than those of smaller parties, whose supporters are numerically fewer in the sample. The following question was asked: ‘Which party would you vote for, if parliamentary elections were held now?’ Of all of the respondents, 72% (710 persons) revealed their party preference and 28% (271 persons) declined to respond.
Fifty pollsters trained by Taloustutkimus conducted the interviews from 25 September to 20 October 2009.
In all, the survey comprised 20 questions on Finland’s foreign, security and defence policy as well as overall security. The report will be published in early December in its entirety.
For additional information please contact:
ABDI Research Branch Chair Tatja Karvonen,
phone: +358 50 590 3744
Secretary General Heli Santala,
phone: +358 9 160 88 162, +358 50 554 9590