16.12.2002 Bulletins and Reports 1/2002

NATO membership of the Baltic countries does not increase Finland's need to be militarily allied

When the survey was carried out, it was not yet known that NATO, at the top meeting in Prague in late November, would invite seven new countries from Central and Eastern Europe, including also the Baltic countries, to join the alliance as members. However, it had almost been taken for certain that the Baltic countries would be invited to join NATO. Now the MTS asked for the second time whether Finland should apply for NATO membership if Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were admitted to join NATO. This year 68 per cent said that not even in this case should Finland apply for NATO membership, while 24 per cent thought that Finland should in that case apply for NATO membership. Last year, the corresponding figures were 71 per cent and 24 per cent. It seems that the discussion going on during the year has hardly had any impact on the citizens' opinion in this question. The figures of this year are almost the same as the answers to the question on Finnish military non-alliance or alliance; 70 per cent support military non-alliance and 22 per cent supported military alliance. When the citizens were asked how NATO's possible enlargement would affect their feeling of security, more than half (51%) said that it would neither increase nor decrease security.

Military non-alliance is largely supported

The MTS has asked about the Finns' opinions on non-alliance and alliance since 1996. The support for non-alliance has ranged from 64 to 79 per cent. In autumn 2001, 79 per cent supported non-alliance and 16 per cent preferred alliance, in summer 1998 64 per cent supported non-alliance and 27 per cent voted for alliance. In the present survey, 70 per cent supported military non-alliance and 22 per cent preferred alliance. Of the voters of the Left Alliance, 88 per cent supported military non-alliance, while the corresponding figure for Social Democrats and the Centre Party was 76, that for the Greens 78 and that for the Coalition Party 59. The majority of the Swedish People's Party (71%) supported military alliance.

When paying attention to the background variables used in this survey, the most typical supporter of an alliance is a man 35-49 years of age, of middle-income and with secondary- level education. He is also from western Finland and gives his vote to the Swedish People's Party. The most typical supporter of non-alliance is a woman 50-70 years of age who earns a good income, has post-secondary-level education and votes for the Left Alliance.

Since last year, a moderate shift from non-alliance towards alliance has taken place, but when the whole time series is examined, the figures are placed on normal levels.

If allied, NATO is the most viable alternative

When asked which alternative of alliance would be preferred if Finland decided, after all, to join a military alliance or to strive for still closer military cooperation with foreign countries; half of the respondents regard NATO the best alternative. The prerequisite is, however, that there would not be foreign troops or bases in Finland in peacetime. A defence alliance with Sweden is supported by a fifth and the EU’s development into a military alliance in addition to the present tasks gets the support of 17 per cent. This question has been asked since 1996, and each time NATO membership in various forms has been the alternative among alliances that has continuously gained most support.

Half of respondents support and half are opposed to increasing the military tasks of the European Union

When asking the citizens of their opinion on the EU's intent to assume military tasks as well, half of the respondents (47%) were positive and the other half (47%) were negative. More than half of those aged 15-24 and 25-34 adopt a positive attitude while the majority of those over 35 years are negative. The share of supporters is the biggest among the voters of the Coalition Party, of whom 58 per cent take a positive attitude. The voters of the Left Alliance, of whom 71 per cent take a negative attitude, give least support. The share of those with a positive attitude has decreased since 2000 and 2001 when more than half (52%, 55%) took a positive attitude towards the addition of military tasks to the EU.

Confidence in the management of Finnish foreign policy

The Finns have confidence in the management of foreign policy. Of those who answered, 79 per cent thought that Finland's foreign policy has been well managed. 14 per cent thought it had been done poorly. Last year the corresponding figures were 87 per cent and ten per cent. 90 per cent of the Social Democratic Party supporters, 78 of the Centre Party voters, 87 per cent of the Coalition Party supporters and 83 of the Green League voters and 82 per cent of the Left Alliance voters regarded Finnish foreign policy as well managed.

This year it was asked as already last year how well or badly Finland has managed its relations to the Nordic countries, Russia, the Baltic countries, the United States and the developing countries. It was also asked, for the first time, how well or badly Finland has managed its relations to Germany, France and the United Kingdom. Of those who answered, 90 per cent estimated that the relations to the Nordic countries had been well managed. Last year, 87 were of this opinion. More than 80 per cent thought that the relations to Russia had been well managed, while the figure was 76 per cent last year. Over 80 per cent said that the relationship to the Baltic countries and Germany has been well managed. Almost 80 per cent thought that the relations to France, the UK and the USA have also been well managed. Last year, the figure was 76 per cent for the USA.

The relations to the developing countries have been managed well according to 60 per cent, and the figure has clearly increased from last year (42%). 33 per cent thought that the relations to the developing countries have been badly managed. The share of people who think in this way has decreased over ten percentage points (46%) since last year.

The foreign policy of the European Union inspires confidence

Two thirds of the Finns think that the foreign policy of the EU has been well managed. Those 15-24 years of age shared most this opinion (72%), while the age group 25-34 was least of this opinion (62%). 73 per cent of the Social Democratic Party and the Green League supporters said that the EU foreign policy had been well managed. 67 per cent of the Left Alliance voters, 65 per cent of the Centre Party supporters and 63 per cent of the Coalition Party voters were of this opinion. Views on the management of EU foreign policy were now asked for the third time.

Finns continue to have a strong will to defend their country

Since 1964, the Finns have been asked of their attitude to armed defence. When asked whether the Finns should take up arms in defence in all circumstances if attacked, even if the

outcome seemed uncertain, almost two thirds answered in the affirmative. This year's result continues on the same lines as the previous results: 78 per cent think they should defend themselves and 16 per cent that they should not.

The greatest support is given by those 50-70 years of age, of whom 80 per cent answered in the affirmative. On the other hand, of those 15-24 years of age, 69 per cent vote for and 26 per cent against. Of women, 72 per cent give a positive answer and 82 per cent of men do the same. In the long time series, the will to defend one's country has remained on a high level.

The belief in Finland's capability to defend itself has also remained on the same level as in recent years. 58 per cent thought that Finland has good chances of defending itself in a war fought with conventional arms, while 36 per cent regarded the chances poor. The strongest belief in the capability to defend the country is among men 25-34 years of age, who have lower or post-secondary-level education and who give their vote to the Coalition Party.

Satisfied with the level of defence appropriations

More than half (56%) want to preserve defence appropriations on present level, about a third (31%) would like to have an increase, and a decrease of defence appropriations is supported by about ten per cent. 60 per cent of women would keep the present level and 52 per cent of men would do the same. Correspondingly, 37 per cent of men and 27 per cent of women would like to raise the defence appropriations. Last year a raise was supported by 36 per cent of the respondents and 52 per cent were content with the present level. The difference in this question between men and women has remained on the same level as last year. Of the Coalition Party voters and those of the Swedish People's Party, 48 per cent would like to raise the defence appropriations. Of the Left Alliance voters, 68 per cent were content with the present level, and the same applied to 65 of the Centre Party voters, 58 per cent of the Social Democratic Party voters and 53 per cent of the Green League voters. About a fifth (20%) of both the Left Alliance and the Green League voters would like to cut the defence appropriations. Six per cent of the Coalition Party voters and 12 per cent of the Social Democratic Party supporters would cut the defence appropriations.

The majority of Finns support general conscription

A clear majority (80%) think that Finland must preserve the defence system based on male general conscription. Less than the per cent would selectively reduce the amount of military training and eight per cent would give up general conscription and go over to a professional army. The figures are just about the same as in last year's survey. Of this year's respondents more than 90 per cent support the present system, of the Coalition party voters 90 per cent, of the Social Democratic Party supporters 83 per cent, of the Green League voters 63 per cent and the Left Alliance supporters 56 per cent.

Finland's participation in peace-support operations is widely supported

When asked whether Finland should only participate in UN-led peacekeeping operations or also in such led by the EU or NATO or not at all in peace-support operations, only five per cent of the respondents said that Finland should not participate in any peace-support operations abroad. About a half (52%) supported participation in operations led only by the UN and 39 per cent also supported participation in EU- or NATO-led operations. The majority of those 15-24 years of age, 55 per cent, also supported participation in operations led by the EU and NATO. The smallest support (31 %) was gained in the age group 50-74.

In the last few years, the figures have been very similar. Last year they were 56 per cent and 39 per cent. Three per cent were of the opinion that Finland should not at all take part in peace-support operations. In 2000 the figures were 56, 33 and 7 per cent.

The feeling of insecurity has increased

About half of the population think that within five years Finland and the Finns will live in a much more insecure world than now; 61 per cent of the women think so and 40 per cent of the men feel alike. In this question, the difference between men and women has always been great. Compared to the latest years, the feeling of insecurity has increased. It was in 1994 last time that more than half of those asked said that the feeling of insecurity has increased.

Almost 60 per cent of those 25-34 years of age and 47 per cent of the age group 50-74 thought that the world would become more insecure within the next few years. In the province of South Finland, 48 per cent felt that the future would become more insecure and in the province of East Finland, the figure was 56. Approximately a fifth said that the world would be more secure within five years than today. A quarter of those asked estimated that the situation would not change.

In spring 2001, 46 per cent felt that the future would be more insecure and a fifth that it would be more secure, 58 per cent of the women and 34 of the men; a quarter thought that no change would take place. In 2000, about a third felt that the future would be more insecure and 37 per cent that it would be more secure.

The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, nuclear weapons, international terrorism and the use of nuclear power in Russia increase the feeling of insecurity

The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, nuclear weapons, international terrorism and the use of nuclear power for the production of energy in Russia are facts that most increase the citizens' feeling of insecurity. Almost half of the respondents said that the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, the Iraqi situation, the increased number of foreigners in Finland, the U.S. war against terrorism and the employment situation in Finland are factors that increase insecurity. International terrorism was now for the first time included in the survey.
The citizens think that security is increased by Finland's enhanced international economic cooperation, the enlargement of the European Union to Eastern Central Europe and Finland's EU membership.

Last year over half of those asked estimated that insecurity is caused by nuclear weapons and the use of nuclear power for energy production in Russia. Furthermore, as much insecurity was caused by the environmental situation and the present use of natural resources. The presence of Russian armed forces in Finland's neighbouring areas and the increased number of foreigners in Finland increased the feeling of insecurity among almost half of the respondents. About half of them believed that the increase in Finland's international economic cooperation and the membership of the European Union are factors that increase security.

Implementation of the survey

The Advisory Board for Defence Information had Taloustutkimus (Economic Research), Finland to carry out the survey as part of an omnibus survey. The survey was conducted as computer assisted personal interviewing (CAPI) in the homes of the respondents. The interviews were conducted on 25 October - 12 November 2002. A total of 16 questions were made. There were 16 questions totally. Persons 15 to 74 years of age were the target group of the survey, except for the province of Åland Islands. All in all, 1,011 persons were interviewed.
When analysing the results, it must be remembered that the results gained from bigger parties are more reliable than those from the small parties, as in number a sample includes less of their supporters. 38,4 per cent of the respondents did not say how they vote. In the survey, the following question was posed: For what party did you vote at the last parliamentary elections?

The sample of this survey is based on quota sampling, in which the quotas were the distribution of age, sex, area and type of municipality of the target group. Interviews were made in 44 municipalities and 48 rural municipalities. The sample has been weighted to be comparable to the target group. On a confidence level of 95 per cent, the margin of error of the total result is 2.5 percentage units in both directions.

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