1.4.2003 Bulletins and Reports 1/2003

Opinions of Finns on the war in Iraq - a survey carried out 25 to 27 March 2003

A large majority of the Finns do not approve of the attack on Iraq led by the United States. The majority of them think that as a result of the war, the status of the United Nations as an organisation maintaining peace in the world will become less important. Furthermore, they believe that controversies between the west and the Islamic world will increase while the status of the United States in international politics will become less important. According to them, Finland has creditably pursued her foreign policy concerning Iraq. The majority think that the media have not provided a reliable picture of the war.

A large majority of the Finns do not approve of the attack on Iraq led by the United States

On 20 March 2003, the coalition led by the United States started a war against Iraq. Taloustutkimus Oy conducted a survey on 25 to 27 March 2003 on behalf of the Advisory Board for Defence Information. According to the survey, 76 % of Finns do not approve of the attack on Iraq led by the United States. More women (85 %) than men (67 %) are against the attack. 14 % of Finns approve of the attack; 20 % of men and 8 % of women.

As a result of the war, the status of the United Nations as an organisation maintaining peace in the world will become less important and controversies between the west and the Islamic world will increase

63 % of Finns believe that the status of the United Nations as an organisation maintaining peace in the world will become less important while only about one in ten believes that the status of the UN will become more important. About one-fifth believes that the status of the UN will remain the same. The most significant differences are between the voters of the Social Democratic Party and the voters of the Coalition Party: 54 % of the voters of the Social Democrats and 73 % of the voters of the Coalition Party believe that the status of the UN will become less important.

56 % believe that controversies between the west and the Islamic world will increase. The voters of the Leftist Union and the Greens especially were of this opinion (75 % and 72 % respectively).

About one-half of Finns (49 %) think that the status of the United States in international politics will become less important. This view is the most common among the voters of the Social Democrats (58 %) whereas only 40 % of the voters of the Greens share this view.
20 % believe that the status of the United States will become more important while 24 % believe that the war will have no effect on the status of the United States in international politics.

40 % believe that the common security and defence policy of the European Union will become less important, 21 % believe that the policy will become more important and 29 % do not believe that the war has any effect on the policy. Especially the voters of the Leftist Union, 31 %, believe that the common security and foreign policy will become more important while as many as 45 % among the voters of the Coalition Party believe the opposite.

Two out of five believe that the status of Nato as a military alliance will become less important while 15 % believe that it will become stronger. One-third believes that the war will have no effect on the status of Nato. Of the voters of the Leftist Union, 57 % believe that the status of Nato will become less important whereas this view was shared by 29 % of the voters of the Greens.

As to solutions in international politics based on the use of armed forces, 41 % believe that they will increase as a result of the war. The opposite view is advocated by 18 % while 30 % think that the war will have no effect. Voters of the Leftist Union and the Greens (56 % and 55 % respectively) believe that the use of armed forces in international po1itics will increase.

As to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, 36 % believe that it will become more important while 39 % believe that it will remain the same.

It is not widely expected that the status of Russia in international politics will change as a result of the war. One-half of Finns expects it to remain the same and one-fourth believes that it will become more important.

Finland has pursued well her foreign policy concerning Iraq

71 % of Finns believe that Finland has pursued well her foreign policy concerning Iraq while 22 % are of the opposite opinion. 82 % of the voters of the Social Democrats and the Leftist Union and
66 % of the voters of the Centre Party think that Finland has pursued well her foreign policy. 13 % of the voters of the Social Democrats and 33 % of the voters of the Centre Party are of the opposite opinion.

According to 9 % of Finns, Finland has shown understanding towards the views of the United States whereas 1 % thinks that Finland has shown understanding towards the views of Iraq.

According to 58 % of Finns (62 % of men and 50 % of women), Finland has adopted primarily the same view as the United Nations whereas 29 % (23 % of men and 34 % of women) think that Finland has taken a sufficiently independent view of the war.

Exports of arms should be banned to countries, which are involved in the war in Iraq

71 % of Finns would like to ban exports of arms to countries, which are involved in the war in Iraq (for example, the United States, Great Britain, Australia, Denmark, Iraq). According to one-fifth of Finns, exports of arms should not be banned. 36 % of the voters of the Coalition Party, 21 % of the voters of the Social Democrats and the Centre Party, 12 % of the voters of the Leftist Union and
9 % of the voters of the Greens share this view.

A large majority support Finland's participation in a humanitarian operation in Iraq and in rebuilding the country

Almost 90 % think that Finland should contribute to humanitarian assistance to the Iraqi population. 72 % support participation in a possible peace support operation while 23 % are against it. According to 62 % of Finns, Finland should participate in rebuilding Iraq while 33 % are against it. According to 61 % of Finns, Finland should accept refugees from Iraq. One-third of Finns is against accepting refugees.

Finns do not believe that the media provide a reliable picture of the war in Iraq

According to about one-half of Finns (51 %), the media have not given a reliable picture of the war while 38 % believe that the picture is reliable.

58 % of Finns believe that the media have given too much coverage to the war in Iraq while 39 % think that the coverage has been suitable.

For more information on the survey, please contact Mr Jorma Hentilä, Chairman of the Survey Branch of the Advisory Board of Defence Information, tel. + 358 9 654217 or + 358 40 587 4894, and Ms Heli Santala, Secretary General, tel. +358 9 160 88162 or + 358 50 554 9590.

The Advisory Board of Defence Information had a survey made of the situation in Iraq. The coalition led by the United States started a war against Iraq on 20 March 2003. Taloustutkimus Oy conducted the survey as part of the Telebus survey. The survey was implemented as a computer-assisted telephone interview (CA TI) on 25 to 27 March 2003. A total of 1007 persons were interviewed. The sample was weighed to represent a target group on the basis of age, gender and place of residence. The political view of the interviewed was assessed by inquiring "Whom did you vote in the previous general elections". The error margin of the survey is 2.5 % to both directions. A total of seven questions were asked.

Only gender and political views were used as variables in the text of this survey.